Demographic consequences of an extreme heat wave are mitigated by spatial heterogeneity in an annual monkeyflower.

Heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change, but the demographic and evolutionary consequences of heat waves are rarely investigated in herbaceous plant species. We examine the consequences of a short but extreme heat wave in Oregon populations of the common yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus) by leveraging a common garden experiment planted with range-wide populations and observational studies of 11 local populations. In the common garden, 89% of seedlings died during the heat wave including >96% of seedlings from geographically local populations. Some populations from hotter and drier environments had higher fitness, however, others from comparable environments performed poorly. Observational studies of local natural populations drastically differed in the consequences of the heat wave-one population was completely extirpated and nearly half had a >50% decrease in fitness. However, a few populations had greater fitness during the heat wave year. Differences in mortality corresponded to the impact of the heat wave on soil moisture-retention of soil moisture throughout the heat wave led to greater survivorship. Our results suggest that not all populations experience the same intensity or degree of mortality during extreme events and such heterogeneity could be important for genetic rescue or to facilitate the distribution of adaptive variants throughout the region.

Life history and chemical defense interact to drive patterns of adaptation in an annual monkeyflower.

Although chemical defenses and herbivore pressure are widely established as key targets and agents of selection, their roles in local adaptation and determining potential evolutionary responses to changing climates are often neglected. Here, we explore fitness differences between 11 rangewide M. guttatus populations in a field common garden experiment and assess the agents and targets of selection driving relative fitness patterns. We use piecewise structural equation models to disentangle associations between chemical defenses, (phenylpropanoid glycosides; PPGs), and life history traits with herbivory and fitness. While the historical environment of populations is not predictive of fitness differences between populations, >90% of variation in fitness can be predicted by the flowering time and foliar PPG defense arsenal of a population. Piecewise structural equation models indicate that life history traits, particularly earlier flowering time, are strongly and directly linked to fitness. However, herbivory, particularly fruit predation, is also an important agent of selection that creates indirect links between fitness and both chemical defenses and life history traits. Our results emphasize the multivariate nature of the agents and targets of selections in producing adaptation and suggest that future responses to selection must navigate a complex fitness landscape.